Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 610
Stephen B. Kaplan 16 Sep 2019
(PONARS EURASIA Policy Memo) Nicolás Maduro has managed to contain a “military-backed challenge” from interim National Assembly President Juan Guaidó in April, but his grip on power remains tenuous given the historic economic crisis his country faces. Oil production, the backbone of its economy, has collapsed from 2.4 million barrels per day in 2013 to less than 1 million barrels today. Despite the wide-eyed promise that first accompanied new...
Policy Memo # 609
Andrei Scherback 30 Aug 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The post-Crimea national consensus in Russia is often interpreted as the manifestation of Russian nationalism. The annexation of Crimea and military campaigns in eastern Ukraine and Syria once led to a rally-round-the-flag effect that helped prompt a new patriotic majority of 86 percent support for the government. This consensus, hinging on a boosted Russian nationalism, was observed on all levels of society, among the...
Policy Memo # 608
Kimberly Marten 21 Aug 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The French government has been taking a balanced and often supportive diplomatic and economic approach to Russia in recent years, so Moscow should logically be trying to cement good relations with Paris amidst current tensions with the West. Yet since 2017, in the Central African Republic (CAR)—a poverty-stricken, violence-ridden country with enduring ties to France where neither the USSR nor Russia ever played much of a role—...
Policy Memo # 607
Arkady Moshes 20 Aug 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) For approximately a year, from summer 2018 onwards, observers were paying close attention to tensions in relations between Russia and Belarus. A particular concern was caused by the assumption that Moscow might be planning to impose upon Minsk the reunification of two states, which could hypothetically allow President Vladimir Putin to circumvent the constitutional two-consecutive-terms limit on Russia’s presidency and stay in...
Policy Memo # 606
Sebastian de Quant 09 Aug 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) First and foremost, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a $550 billion project designed to relieve China’s industrialized zones of surplus output and grow its less developed Western regions. Yet, its strategic and political-economic effects make it a geopolitical event. Strategic because the initiative forges powerful new foreign policy tools for China, for example: logistical control of trade routes (see Figure 1), an...
Policy Memo # 605
Polina Sinovets 08 Aug 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) According to the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), Russian nuclear strategy calls for the early use of nuclear weapons in the event of a conflict with NATO. It would be meant as a coercive tool to stop a major adversary from interfering in a regional conflict between Russia and its neighbors. The U.S. NPR states that Moscow “mistakenly assesses that the threat of nuclear escalation or actual first use of nuclear weapons...
Policy Memo # 604
Mariya Omelicheva 31 Jul 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The 2016 change of power in Uzbekistan to President Shavkat Mirziyoyev prompted the deepening of cooperation between Washington and Tashkent. While rapprochement touched many areas of bilateral relations, including investments and trade, it is the military-to-military (mil-to-mil) relations that reached an unprecedented depth and frequency of collaboration. Under Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan has been in high demand as a...
Policy Memo # 603
Hilary Appel 19 Jul 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The blossoming of relations between the Russian and Chinese presidents has been prominently on display. Images have been widely distributed of Xi Jinping awarding Vladimir Putin the newly created Medal of Friendship, the two leaders celebrating Putin’s birthday, and Xi giving Putin Chinese cooking lessons. Since Xi became China’s president in 2013, he has met the Russian president around thirty times. This warming of...
Policy Memo # 602
Brian Taylor 18 Jul 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Russian President Vladimir Putin promised a “decisive leap forward in development” in his fourth term (2018-2024), claiming that Russia will create a “modern system of effective governance.” The prospects of a developmental breakthrough, however, are extremely slim. The economy remains sluggish and the political system is resistant to major institutional reforms. Over the last two decades, Putin has shown no appetite for...
Policy Memo # 601
Alexander Sukharenko 08 Jul 2019
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The fast expansion of information-communication technology (ITC) as a requisite factor of economic development and improvement of public institutions inevitably creates new opportunities for criminals. Hundreds of thousands of cybercrimes are registered annually with associated financial losses estimated at several billion dollars. The Russian government has been trying to counter cybercrime through legislation and...

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