Ivan Kurilla 10 Jul 2013
A state’s resources, strength, and policies help define the place it occupies in the world, but so do decisions that others in the international system make about it. These can include political decisions, such as inclusion into international organizations or the imposition of sanctions. States make other less obvious decisions, however, even before extending an invitation to join a club or considering sanctions. Such decisions concern how to...
Eric McGlinchey 10 Jul 2013
(IERES-Central Asia Program Policy Brief) Key Points: Factors that produce democracy can produce violence. Drivers of reform are also drivers of radicalism. Predictable indeterminacy is the surprising suddenness of protest and the ability of social capital to produce liberal and illiberal outcomes. Predictable indeterminacy is the product of two dynamics: (1) the ability of political entrepreneurs to marshal social capital for liberal and...
Pavel Baev 10 Jul 2013
Barely noticed in the United States and Europe, where security analysts pile their files on Egypt on top of dossiers on Brazil and Turkey, the political crisis in Russia reached a new phase last week as the Kremlin intensified its persecution of the opposition. The main instrument of these repressions is the criminal investigation, and the main focus of the campaign is the court case against fierce anti-corruption blogger and fast-rising...
Andrey Makarychev 09 Jul 2013
The Germans have finally lumped Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus into one group - not only geographically - but politically too. These countries share not only oppressive regimes, but also a history of resistance to them. The Congress "Protest. Culture. Politics" held in Berlin at the Heinrich Boell Foundation was a perfect illustration of the growing importance of counter-cultures in these three Eastern European countries. These counter-cultures...
Alexander Cooley 09 Jul 2013
(Co-authors: Alexander Cooley, Marlene Laruelle) Russian strategy toward Central Asia generates great interest in Western academic and policy circles, but few analytical nuances. Depending on the source, Russia is often characterized as wanting to dominate or control the region, to reconstitute the Soviet Union, or to obsessively counter the influence of the West and/or a rising China. Although many note the numerous links, soft power...
Mikhail Troitskiy 09 Jul 2013
(Carnegie Europe) With Asia rising and the West still confronting crises, power is diffusing and the world is becoming ever more complex. This shifting landscape presents decisionmakers across the globe with increased uncertainty. Meanwhile, the need for financial austerity confronts governments with the dilemma of providing for their countries’ security without overspending. Amid enduring expectations that living conditions will continue to...
Dmitry Gorenburg 08 Jul 2013
The Russian Ministry of Defense recently published its activity plan for the rest of the decade. Everyone who can read Russian should go look at the handy summary in table form. There’s a lot of information there. I’ll try to pick out some of the highlights here. The first section covers personnel. Here we find out concrete plans for the number of contract soldiers per year. The numbers are as follows: 2013: 241,000; 2014: 295,000; 2015: 350,...
Elizabeth Wishnick 08 Jul 2013
Long accustomed to a seat on the sidelines of East Asian affairs, Russia now finds itself sought after as an energy and military partner, particularly by Vietnam, but increasingly by a wider range of states in Southeast Asia. Russia’s growing relations with Southeast Asian states, especially in energy and defense, and the development of an alternative northern shipping route to the Malacca Straits are changing perceptions of Russia’s potential...

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