Posts by Dmitry Gorenburg

Dmitry Gorenburg 07-31-2018
(RMR blog) Last summer, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Russia will continue to strengthen its forces around the Black Sea in order to “neutralize the security threat in the Black Sea region from NATO.” This rhetoric highlights the change in threat perceptions that has taken place on both sides in the region in recent years. Just 10 years ago, the Black Sea was touted as a model of naval cooperation among former adversaries. Collaborative...
Dmitry Gorenburg 04-24-2018
(Russiamil blog) Today's MCIS slides installment comes from Lt. General Sergey Kuralenko, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief for Peacekeeping Operations of the Russian Ground Forces. This comes from the breakout session on soft power as a tool to pursue military-political objectives. Sadly, it seems that the Russian MOD has not posted video or speech texts from the breakout sessions, so I'll provide a brief summary here, in addition to the slides. Kuralenko's...
Dmitry Gorenburg 04-20-2018
MCIS slides on regional security in the Middle East and North Africa Today’s installment of MCIS slides comes courtesy of Sam Charap, who attended the breakout session on regional security in the MENA region. The panel was led off by Lt. General Stanislav Gadzhimagomedov, the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian General Staff. Unfortunately, the Russian MOD has not made available speech texts or video of the breakout sessions. (...
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Dmitry Gorenburg 04-14-2018
(RMR) I wrote this up quickly on Saturday for friends, and it seemed to get a positive reaction, so I decided to expand a bit and send it out to the wider world… The United States (and the Trump administration) came out well. The would saw a measured response that showed US willingness to follow up words with actions, while also showing that Trump’s rash tweets do not equal rash actions (at least vis-a-vis Russia). Jim Mattis in particular showed that he...
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Dmitry Gorenburg 01-24-2018
(RMR) The last month or so has seen a number of good overviews in the Russian press of recent procurement and future plans of the Russian Air Force. The Russian Air Force has been substantially modernized and upgraded as part of the current State Armament Program (SAP-2020). The table below summarizes procurement in tactical aviation over the last ten years, as compiled by Moscow’s CAST think tank.

  Type earlier 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017...
Dmitry Gorenburg 01-18-2018
I’ve written a short report for an American Enterprise Institute project on possible Russian interventions in neighboring states. I was asked to discuss possible reasons for and trajectories of a Russian intervention in Kazakhstan. You can access the full report through AEI, but here’s an excerpt. Key Points - Kazakhstan’s size and Russia’s lack of significant military presence in the region make outright invasion unlikely. - Nevertheless...
Dmitry Gorenburg 12-25-2017
Для российской армии это был позорный случай, который произошел накануне парада Победы 8 мая 2015 года в Москве на Красной площади. Во время генеральной репетиции новейший и якобы самый лучший танк в мире «Армата» остановился посреди дороги, как вкопанный. Солдатам и автомашинам пришлось обходить и объезжать виновника этого происшествия, который стоил восемь миллионов евро. Козлом отпущения стал для министерства обороны водитель, который не знал, как ...
Dmitry Gorenburg 10-30-2017
I promised a readout of my impressions of the Valdai Club meeting. This was the first time I had been invited to attend this event and I was curious to get a sense of both the content of the discussions and the atmosphere. The four day conference was held at a Gazprom-owned mountain resort an hour outside of Sochi, though after the first day we had virtually no opportunities to go outside, much less leave the compound. When I decided to take a walk in the...
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Dmitry Gorenburg 09-19-2017
Сим Так, главный военный аналитик Force Analysis, и Дмитрий Горенбург, старший научный сотрудник CNA, рассказали Business Insider, что число 100 000 человек впервые прозвучало в украинском любительском блоге и основано на общем количестве вагонов, которые, по словам Москвы, будут использовать для транспортировки военных на место учений. Сим Так сказал, что «многие люди просто скопировали данные с этого «украинского блога». В любом случае «трудно понять,...
Dmitry Gorenburg 08-08-2017
(National Interest) The Zapad-2017 military exercise that will take place in September in Russia and Belarus has already begun to draw attention in the Western press. In recent days, media outlets have published somewhat panicked accounts about the unprecedented numbers of Russian troops conducting drills on the borders of vulnerable eastern European countries like Poland and Lithuania. Others are arguing that once Russian troops enter Belarus to...

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