Posts by Pavel Baev

Pavel Baev 08-07-2018
(EDM) In the first week of August 2008, escalating tensions between Georgia and Russia exploded in a messy battle for Tskhinvali, South Ossetia. The resulting “Five Day War” culminated in the advance of Russian tanks to the suburbs of Tbilisi. A ceasefire was negotiated by then-president of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, acting on behalf of the European Union. But the resonance of that war proved to be heavy and lasting. Less than a decade later, Russian tanks...
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Pavel Baev 07-31-2018
(EDM) The fruits of President Vladimir Putin’s “victory” at the meeting with President Donald Trump in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, are turning increasingly bitter for Russia as initial dismay and angry responses in the United States have continued to coalesce into strong pushback (see EDM, July 23). Perhaps the strongest manifestation of this reassertion of firm US stance against Russian attacks on the world order was the Crimea Declaration, issued by...
Pavel Baev 07-24-2018
(EDM) The summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Helsinki last Monday (July 16) continues to generate strong international resonance, despite apparently producing few if any tangible results. In Washington, politicians and experts are at odds about interpreting Trump’s bonhomie with Putin shown at this long-anticipated rendezvous, particularly following the disagreeable North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Brussels;...
Pavel Baev 07-17-2018
(EDM) The culmination of United States President Donald Trump’s European tour occurs today (July 16), in Helsinki, at the anxiously anticipated but far-from-perfectly prepared meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump comes to the rendezvous carrying the baggage of old problems and new controversies (see EDM, July 9, 12) generated during his participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Brussels, his official visit to...
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Pavel Baev 07-11-2018
Радостная футбольная вечеринка может превратиться в отвратительное мероприятие всего за несколько недель Уже вторую неделю в России происходит футбольная фиеста. Но шумные торжества не смогли полностью скрыть нарастающее недовольство, вызванное ужесточением экономической и социальной политик. Правительство, очевидно, решило, что Кубок мира – прекрасное окно возможностей, чтобы провести непопулярные меры по сокращению социальных пособий: они необходимы из-...
Pavel Baev 06-12-2018
(EDM) This year’s G7 summit, held in Quebec, Canada, on June 8–9, was overcome by seemingly unprecedented controversies even before United States President Donald Trump suggested bringing Russia back into this elite club of the world’s largest liberal-democratic economies. Only the newly appointed Italian Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte may have found this idea worth contemplating (see EDM, June 6). The other five members did not even bother marshalling...
Pavel Baev 05-31-2018
(EDM) The annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (May 24–26) managed to attract more high-level foreign guests than could be expected considering Russia’s stagnant economy and relative lack of interest from international investors. Arguably, the organizers should have expressed gratitude for this success to United States President Donald Trump. One issue that attending French President Emmanuel Macron, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and...
Pavel Baev 05-15-2018
(EDM) President Vladimir Putin planned his fourth inauguration, held on May 7, to perfection. Like each Russian presidential inauguration since his first, it was timed to come just a few days prior to the traditional military parade on Victory Day (May 9). His hope was probably for these two big pompous shows to break the stream of bad news that had bedeviled Russia since his carefully controlled re-election in mid-March (see EDM, March 19). The deadly...
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Pavel Baev 05-14-2018
«30 лет назад в Армении разворачивались не менее драматичные события. В феврале 1988 года неизвестные широкой общественности политические деятели осмелились бросить вызов местному коммунистическому руководству, несмотря на то, что Армения считалась одной из спокойных и лояльных республик СССР», - пишет британский аналитик Томас де Ваал в статье «Армянская революция и наследие 1988-го», опубликованной на сайте фонда «Карнеги». «Обойдя...
Pavel Baev 05-09-2018
Путин, конечно, предполагает, что его предупреждения сработали и ограничили удар США по Сирии. Но так ли однозначны предупреждения Вашингтона? Целую неделю после химической атаки на сирийскую Думу Россия с тревогой ждала, как США накажет режим Башара Асада. Москва всячески отрицала факт преступления, однако никто и не предполагал, что ее заверения разубедят Вашингтон, или даже Париж, предпринимать решительные военные действия в ответ. В конце концов,...

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About the author

Research Professor
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)