Posts by Pavel Baev

Pavel Baev 02-08-2019
Путин может быть и доволен нынешним состоянием, но все чаще склоняется к паническим атакам и чрезмерным реакциям на внезапные вызовы. В отличие от предыдущего года, Россия входит в 2019-й с низкими ожиданиями и все более глубоким разочарованием в собственном шатком возрождении. В 2018-м, наоборот, в фокусе ожиданий был чемпионат мира по футболу, президентские выборы с предопределенным результатом и завышенные надежды на рост пенсий и социальных выплат....
Pavel Baev 02-06-2019
(EDM) The United States’ suspension (as of February 2) of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, was no surprise—but still delivered a hard blow to Russia’s international position. President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the outdated but still important Cold War–era agreement back in October; and in early December, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) granted Russia 60 days of respite to return to full...
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Pavel Baev 01-29-2019
(EDM) Foreign affairs have yielded few successes and much chagrin for Russia since the start of 2019 (see EDM, January 14, 2019). Relations with the United States are going from bad to worse, as the inevitable collapse of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty signifies a failure in arms control talks, traditionally the main channel of bilateral communications (Russiancouncil.ru, January 21, 2019; see EDM, January 17, 2019). The much-...
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Pavel Baev 01-15-2019
(EDM) Unlike the year before, Russia entered 2019 with low expectations and deepening disappointment in its own faltering revival. In contrast, the World Cup provided a focus for anticipation in 2018, and the presidential elections, pre-determined as the outcome was, raised hopes for increases of pensions and social benefits. Those hopes turned into frustration with the upping of the retirement age by five years. The dull outlook for this coming year was...
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Pavel Baev 12-17-2018
Военные «победы» все слабее возвращаются в виде роста интереса россиян. И проявить слабину Путин уже не может.  Твит президента США Дональда Трампа об отмене встречи с президентом Владимиром Путиным на саммите G20 в Аргентине был для Кремля таким шоком, что ответ на него отложили пока не появится «официальная информация». Когда помощники Путина поняли, что на самом деле все и было официально, то указали на внутреннюю политическую ситуацию в США, как...
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Pavel Baev 12-04-2018
(EDM) The tweet by United States President Donald Trump, canceling his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, was such a shock for the Kremlin that a response was postponed until “official information” would arrive (RIA Novosti, November 29). When Putin’s aides figured out that it was, in fact official, they pointed to the domestic political situation in the US as the main reason for the non-summit (...
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Pavel Baev 11-27-2018
(EDM) Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin’s press secretary, had to recently (November 13) explain that there was nothing extraordinary about the fact that President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev were out of the country at the same time (RIA Novosti, November 13). Medvedev’s whereabouts are usually of scant interest even to his own government, but Putin’s travel schedule for most of November has been so full that he repeatedly had to dispatch...
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Pavel Baev 11-21-2018
Сладкая перспектива встречи с Трампом помогла России проглотить горькую и неизбежную потерю престижа от краха устаревшего соглашения Новости о решении США выйти из Договора о ликвидации ракет средней и малой дальности 1988 привели к предполагаемому взрыву пропагандистских мыслей в Москве. И на конец прошлой недели весь этот симулированный гнев улегся и появилось несколько трезвых выстоянных мыслей. Российская верхушка долгое время хотела выйти из этого...
Pavel Baev 11-05-2018
(EDM) As the furious campaigning in the United States’ 2018 midterm elections enters its final stretch, Russia can probably find some relief in the fact that it has not really come up as a major political issue this year. But at the same time, Moscow is likely nervous about the prospects of further political pressure coming out of the next Congress. President Vladimir Putin claimed on many occasions that Washington’s “Russophobic” course is driven by...
Pavel Baev 10-30-2018
(EDM) News about the United States’ decision to withdraw from the 1988 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty produced the predictable explosion of propaganda commentary in Moscow. But by the end of last week, the feigned outrage had expired, and some sober second thoughts emerged. The Russian top brass wanted out of this Cold War–era agreement for a long time, and the Kremlin only sought to push the blame for the inevitable breakdown on the US (...

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About the author

Research Professor
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)