Posts by Pavel Baev

Pavel Baev 06-12-2018
(EDM) This year’s G7 summit, held in Quebec, Canada, on June 8–9, was overcome by seemingly unprecedented controversies even before United States President Donald Trump suggested bringing Russia back into this elite club of the world’s largest liberal-democratic economies. Only the newly appointed Italian Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte may have found this idea worth contemplating (see EDM, June 6). The other five members did not even bother marshalling...
Pavel Baev 05-31-2018
(EDM) The annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (May 24–26) managed to attract more high-level foreign guests than could be expected considering Russia’s stagnant economy and relative lack of interest from international investors. Arguably, the organizers should have expressed gratitude for this success to United States President Donald Trump. One issue that attending French President Emmanuel Macron, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and...
Pavel Baev 05-15-2018
(EDM) President Vladimir Putin planned his fourth inauguration, held on May 7, to perfection. Like each Russian presidential inauguration since his first, it was timed to come just a few days prior to the traditional military parade on Victory Day (May 9). His hope was probably for these two big pompous shows to break the stream of bad news that had bedeviled Russia since his carefully controlled re-election in mid-March (see EDM, March 19). The deadly...
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Pavel Baev 05-14-2018
«30 лет назад в Армении разворачивались не менее драматичные события. В феврале 1988 года неизвестные широкой общественности политические деятели осмелились бросить вызов местному коммунистическому руководству, несмотря на то, что Армения считалась одной из спокойных и лояльных республик СССР», - пишет британский аналитик Томас де Ваал в статье «Армянская революция и наследие 1988-го», опубликованной на сайте фонда «Карнеги». «Обойдя...
Pavel Baev 05-09-2018
Путин, конечно, предполагает, что его предупреждения сработали и ограничили удар США по Сирии. Но так ли однозначны предупреждения Вашингтона? Целую неделю после химической атаки на сирийскую Думу Россия с тревогой ждала, как США накажет режим Башара Асада. Москва всячески отрицала факт преступления, однако никто и не предполагал, что ее заверения разубедят Вашингтон, или даже Париж, предпринимать решительные военные действия в ответ. В конце концов,...
Pavel Baev 05-01-2018
(EDM) The end of April was extraordinarily rich in high-profile international events—and Russia was conspicuously absent from all these dynamics. The president of South Korea and the North Korean dictator planted a pine tree of peace just to the south of the ceasefire line that still divides these two states. French President Emmanuel Macron paid a state visit to Washington, DC (an oak tree was duly planted), and his overtly friendly talks with United...
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Pavel Baev 04-24-2018
(EDM) Grand geopolitical scheming took a break in Moscow last week. The main news—improbably—turned to the fiasco of the government trying, since April 16, to ban the popular instant messenger Telegram. Millions of Russians remain blissfully unaware about this “state failure,” but probably as many others are following it with keen interest; in fact, use of this popular app has actually increased since being “blocked” in Russia (RBC, April 19). The state’s...
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Pavel Baev 04-23-2018
Новый президентский срок Путина начался не лучшим образом, как на внутриполитической, так и на международной аренах. В прошлую пятницу, 6 апреля, Департамент казначейства США обнародовал новый список жестких санкций против российских бизнесменов, политиков и компаний. Сам факт его публикации не вызвал особых потрясений – наказание уже нависало над Москвой несколько недель.  Неожиданностью стали выбор времени для огласки и состав списка: в нем меньше...
Pavel Baev 04-17-2018
(EDM) For a week following the April 7 chemical attack in Douma (a suburb or Damascus, Syria), Russia was high-strung with anxiety about the United States’ forthcoming punishment of the Bashar al-Assad regime. Moscow issued every kind of denial that a crime had actually been committed, but nobody expected that argument to dissuade Washington, or even Paris, from delivering a forceful military response (Rossiiskaya Gazeta, April 13). Indeed, denials of...
Pavel Baev 04-10-2018
(EDM) The fact that, last Friday (April 6), the United States Department of the Treasury published a new list of severe sanctions targeting Russian businessmen, officials and companies came as no great shock—rumors about that looming punishment had been swirling around Moscow for weeks. The surprise was the list’s composition—with fewer “oligarchs” and many more officials than expected—and the timing. The sanctions came on the heels of Western democracies...
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About the author

Research Professor
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)