Posts by Pavel Baev

Pavel Baev 05-15-2019
(EDM) Russia tries to maintain a finger in every conflict in the Middle East, and President Vladimir Putin seeks to cultivate connections with various parties in multiple quarrels. Presently, however, the Kremlin’s access is being curtailed: Moscow, for instance, cannot find an entry point into the exploding crisis in Gaza. Furthermore, Putin clearly disapproves of the removal of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika in Algeria under pressure from street...
Pavel Baev 04-24-2019
(EDM) The second round of the presidential elections in Ukraine, held last Sunday (April 21), was a rather unconventional democratic exercise. And for millions of keen followers in Russia, who looked at it through the distorting lens of their mainstream media, it was oddly disconcerting. For one thing, the incumbent, Petro Poroshenko, who was elected amidst the severe war crisis in 2014 and performed better than expected, was convincingly defeated. For...
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Pavel Baev 04-16-2019
(EDM) The fifth Russia-sponsored international forum “The Arctic: Territory of Dialogue” was staged last week (April 9–10), in St. Petersburg, and President Vladimir Putin used the occasion to demonstrate his particular interest in the international issues affecting this extreme region. He was joined on the panel by the prime ministers of four northern European states—Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden—who sought to collectively ensure that the tensions...
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Pavel Baev 04-09-2019
(EDM) The meeting of 29 foreign ministers from member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), in Washington, DC, last week (April 3–4), marking the 70th anniversary of the North Atlantic Alliance, was not a joyful occasion for Russia. During the celebration, Russia was duly identified as the main disruptor of regional security. The allies asserted unity in deterring Moscow’s provocative behavior and confirmed their resolve to increase...
Pavel Baev 04-03-2019
(EDM) The presidential elections in Ukraine last Sunday (March 31) were derided, denigrated and ridiculed by Russian propaganda, but they still marked a striking contrast with the severely controlled politics in Russia. In an odd historical coincidence, the last meaningful and even fateful elections Russia saw happened exactly 30 years ago, when Mikhail Gorbachev, driven by a desire to modernize the sclerotic state, opened up the super-rigid Soviet system...
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Pavel Baev 03-25-2019
(EDM) The conclusion of the 22-month-long investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller and the presentation of his report to United States Attorney General William Barr is certain to capture prime international attention for weeks to come—and to directly impact on many global points of tension. Russia is the main culprit in this investigation, and while it is possible to deduce from the absence of any new indictments that the proposition about “...
Pavel Baev 03-19-2019
(EDM) By mid-March 2014, Russian “little green men” took full control of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. And on March 18, President Vladimir Putin made a jubilant address to the Russian Federation Council (upper chamber of parliament) on the “reunification” with Crimea, asserting, “In people’s hearts and minds, Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia” (Kremlin.ru, March 18, 2014). The forceful dismemberment of Ukraine and the illegal annexation...
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Pavel Baev 02-26-2019
(EDM) The annual presidential address to the Federal Assembly (upper chamber of the Russian parliament) is a big political show in Russia, which tells little about the state of the country but much about the mood in the ruling elite. The address, delivered by President Vladimir Putin last week (February 20), revealed worries in the Kremlin about the spreading discontent and declining popularity of the leader who took charge nearly 20 years ago (Moscow...
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Pavel Baev 02-21-2019
(EDM) Mid-February registered a remarkable sequence of international forums, whose participants debated and sought to counter Russia’s power politics in Europe and the Middle East. First, defense ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) had their regular meeting in Brussels (February 13–14) and then proceeded to the annual security conference in Munich (February 15–17). Meanwhile, the United States–sponsored conference in Warsaw on the...
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Pavel Baev 02-08-2019
Путин может быть и доволен нынешним состоянием, но все чаще склоняется к паническим атакам и чрезмерным реакциям на внезапные вызовы. В отличие от предыдущего года, Россия входит в 2019-й с низкими ожиданиями и все более глубоким разочарованием в собственном шатком возрождении. В 2018-м, наоборот, в фокусе ожиданий был чемпионат мира по футболу, президентские выборы с предопределенным результатом и завышенные надежды на рост пенсий и социальных выплат....

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About the author

Research Professor
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)